Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co., Ltd. (002081.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.56 - $0.72$0.64
Multi-Stage$1.15 - $1.26$1.21
Blended Fair Value$0.92
Current Price$3.50
Upside-73.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.34%1.92%0.130.130.040.250.260.250.190.180.180.07
YoY Growth---2.05%233.96%-84.08%-1.94%1.34%30.56%5.65%4.40%135.64%-31.15%
Dividend Yield--3.97%3.92%0.77%4.62%2.73%3.10%1.57%1.42%1.59%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)457.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.4757.1734.30
Cash Retained (M)137.08137.08137.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.47-57.17-34.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.6079.91102.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,655.922,655.922,655.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-11.88%-10.88%-9.88%
Fair Value$0.56$0.64$0.72
Upside / Downside-84.14%-81.61%-79.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)457.37407.61363.26323.74288.51257.12264.84
Payout Ratio70.03%74.02%78.02%82.01%86.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.29301.73283.41265.50248.14231.41244.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-11.88%-10.88%-9.88%
Year 1 PV (M)271.26274.33277.41
Year 2 PV (M)229.06234.29239.57
Year 3 PV (M)192.92199.56206.35
Year 4 PV (M)162.09169.58177.32
Year 5 PV (M)135.90143.79152.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,059.652,179.202,304.23
Equity Value (M)3,050.873,200.743,356.92
Shares Outstanding (M)2,655.922,655.922,655.92
Fair Value$1.15$1.21$1.26
Upside / Downside-67.18%-65.57%-63.89%

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