Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GDH Supertime Group Company Limited (001338.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.36 - $6.18$5.25
Multi-Stage$6.86 - $7.51$7.18
Blended Fair Value$6.22
Current Price$11.32
Upside-45.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-3.54%0.00%0.150.150.050.010.280.180.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.45%215.39%730.34%-98.00%60.41%712.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.37%0.26%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)163.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.5341.5824.95
Cash Retained (M)163.46163.46163.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.53-41.58-24.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.94121.89138.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.80501.80501.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.36$5.25$6.18
Upside / Downside-61.51%-53.58%-45.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.63329.30326.01322.75319.52316.32325.81
Payout Ratio50.86%58.69%66.51%74.34%82.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.16193.25216.84239.94262.55284.69301.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)174.02175.80177.57
Year 2 PV (M)175.84179.44183.09
Year 3 PV (M)175.21180.63186.15
Year 4 PV (M)172.65179.80187.18
Year 5 PV (M)168.58177.35186.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,576.022,710.162,849.83
Equity Value (M)3,442.313,603.183,770.32
Shares Outstanding (M)501.80501.80501.80
Fair Value$6.86$7.18$7.51
Upside / Downside-39.40%-36.57%-33.63%

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