Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Energy Investment (001286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.73 - $12.17$9.76
Multi-Stage$19.48 - $21.44$20.44
Blended Fair Value$15.10
Current Price$8.94
Upside68.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.410.350.110.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.14%228.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.46%3.58%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,928.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,876.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,051.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)585.62366.01219.61
Cash Retained (M)1,051.601,051.601,051.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-585.62-366.01-219.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.98685.59831.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.73$9.76$12.17
Upside / Downside-13.58%9.17%36.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,928.112,898.832,869.842,841.152,812.732,784.612,868.14
Payout Ratio64.09%69.27%74.45%79.63%84.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,876.512,007.992,136.642,262.532,385.682,506.152,653.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,875.611,894.751,913.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,864.211,902.451,941.08
Year 3 PV (M)1,843.901,900.931,959.12
Year 4 PV (M)1,816.091,891.361,968.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,782.021,874.821,971.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,379.4466,679.7670,116.15
Equity Value (M)72,561.2976,144.0779,870.61
Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
Fair Value$19.48$20.44$21.44
Upside / Downside117.89%128.64%139.83%

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