Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (000999.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.03 - $81.89$53.35
Multi-Stage$28.22 - $30.74$29.45
Blended Fair Value$41.40
Current Price$28.09
Upside47.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.32%27.26%1.930.670.570.340.290.260.310.110.100.27
YoY Growth--186.78%17.40%69.68%17.87%10.26%-15.22%187.50%6.67%-63.24%56.92%
Dividend Yield--5.95%2.17%1.68%1.26%1.98%1.58%1.77%0.65%0.63%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,760.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,746.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,014.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)552.18345.11207.07
Cash Retained (M)1,014.231,014.231,014.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-552.18-345.11-207.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)462.05669.11807.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.03$53.35$81.89
Upside / Downside31.83%89.93%191.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,760.882,940.343,131.463,335.013,551.783,782.653,896.13
Payout Ratio63.26%68.61%73.96%79.31%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,746.662,017.412,315.992,644.853,006.693,404.383,603.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,820.421,837.681,854.93
Year 2 PV (M)1,885.781,921.701,957.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,943.271,999.052,055.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,993.412,070.072,148.92
Year 5 PV (M)2,036.692,135.062,237.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,797.3733,333.2034,927.80
Equity Value (M)41,476.9443,296.7645,182.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
Fair Value$28.22$29.45$30.74
Upside / Downside0.45%4.85%9.42%

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