Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co., Ltd. (000913.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.36 - $10.46$8.88
Multi-Stage$7.22 - $7.80$7.50
Blended Fair Value$8.19
Current Price$17.07
Upside-51.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS93.55%31.38%0.790.270.000.000.390.030.020.090.010.03
YoY Growth--193.84%14,677.93%76.26%-99.74%1,253.50%76.70%-82.42%745.61%-56.71%-50.42%
Dividend Yield--4.34%1.87%0.01%0.01%1.62%0.29%0.14%0.58%0.06%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)412.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.0566.2839.77
Cash Retained (M)117.86117.86117.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.05-66.28-39.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.8151.5878.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)521.66521.66521.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate17.16%17.16%17.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.36$8.88$10.46
Upside / Downside-56.90%-47.95%-38.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.23564.70601.40640.49682.12726.46748.26
Payout Ratio77.77%80.22%82.66%85.11%87.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)412.37452.99497.14545.12597.23653.82692.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate17.16%17.16%17.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)383.01386.64390.27
Year 2 PV (M)355.40362.17369.00
Year 3 PV (M)329.50338.95348.59
Year 4 PV (M)305.23316.97329.04
Year 5 PV (M)282.53296.17310.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,112.072,214.092,320.01
Equity Value (M)3,767.733,914.994,067.25
Shares Outstanding (M)521.66521.66521.66
Fair Value$7.22$7.50$7.80
Upside / Downside-57.69%-56.03%-54.32%

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