Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (000895.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.72 - $25.14$19.99
Multi-Stage$22.90 - $25.08$23.97
Blended Fair Value$21.98
Current Price$24.74
Upside-11.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.01%4.31%1.411.811.941.721.620.561.451.162.050.91
YoY Growth---22.45%-6.67%12.93%5.99%187.35%-61.00%24.57%-43.25%126.36%-1.87%
Dividend Yield--5.21%6.79%7.49%5.92%3.96%1.44%5.51%4.54%9.08%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,143.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,700.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,443.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,028.66642.91385.75
Cash Retained (M)2,443.072,443.072,443.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,028.66-642.91-385.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.411,800.162,057.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$15.72$19.99$25.14
Upside / Downside-36.47%-19.20%1.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,143.285,231.335,320.895,411.985,504.635,598.865,766.83
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,700.213,138.793,591.594,058.984,541.325,038.985,334.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)2,869.182,897.662,926.15
Year 2 PV (M)3,001.073,060.973,121.45
Year 3 PV (M)3,100.283,193.553,288.68
Year 4 PV (M)3,170.743,298.563,430.21
Year 5 PV (M)3,216.003,378.873,548.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,977.2867,217.2470,587.15
Equity Value (M)79,334.5683,046.8586,901.90
Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
Fair Value$22.90$23.97$25.08
Upside / Downside-7.44%-3.11%1.38%

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