Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd. (000828.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.95 - $64.64$36.82
Multi-Stage$21.09 - $23.06$22.06
Blended Fair Value$29.44
Current Price$11.17
Upside163.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.72%15.36%0.750.250.270.250.350.270.250.300.300.25
YoY Growth--200.63%-7.41%8.00%-28.76%29.98%8.00%-16.67%0.00%20.00%38.89%
Dividend Yield--7.48%2.43%2.76%2.29%3.62%3.87%2.54%2.81%2.11%2.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,064.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)535.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)528.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.85133.0379.82
Cash Retained (M)528.44528.44528.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.85-133.03-79.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)315.59395.41448.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,042.431,042.431,042.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate4.10%5.10%6.10%
Fair Value$23.95$36.82$64.64
Upside / Downside114.41%229.62%478.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,064.241,118.531,175.581,235.541,298.561,364.801,405.74
Payout Ratio50.35%58.28%66.21%74.14%82.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)535.80651.84778.32916.011,065.721,228.321,300.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate4.10%5.10%6.10%
Year 1 PV (M)599.75605.51611.27
Year 2 PV (M)658.90671.62684.46
Year 3 PV (M)713.50734.26755.42
Year 4 PV (M)763.78793.55824.19
Year 5 PV (M)809.97849.62890.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,436.9219,339.6320,277.36
Equity Value (M)21,982.8222,994.2124,043.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,042.431,042.431,042.43
Fair Value$21.09$22.06$23.06
Upside / Downside88.79%97.48%106.49%

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