Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co., Ltd. (000598.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.23 - $142.23$62.59
Multi-Stage$15.96 - $17.44$16.69
Blended Fair Value$39.64
Current Price$6.66
Upside495.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.60%19.98%0.350.270.250.220.190.140.140.120.090.08
YoY Growth--27.23%8.62%13.91%20.08%29.45%0.41%19.02%33.72%9.89%43.83%
Dividend Yield--5.16%4.27%4.96%4.47%3.43%3.13%2.99%2.37%1.55%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,134.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)950.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,183.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)426.84266.78160.07
Cash Retained (M)1,183.371,183.371,183.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-426.84-266.78-160.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)756.53916.591,023.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,984.262,984.262,984.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.23$62.59$142.23
Upside / Downside338.94%839.82%2,035.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,134.202,272.922,420.662,578.012,745.582,924.043,011.76
Payout Ratio44.55%53.64%62.73%71.82%80.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)950.831,219.231,518.511,851.552,221.462,631.642,785.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,122.851,133.491,144.13
Year 2 PV (M)1,287.911,312.441,337.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,446.221,487.731,530.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,597.971,659.431,722.64
Year 5 PV (M)1,743.371,827.581,915.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,430.7642,383.5844,411.14
Equity Value (M)47,629.0849,804.2552,060.16
Shares Outstanding (M)2,984.262,984.262,984.26
Fair Value$15.96$16.69$17.44
Upside / Downside139.64%150.59%161.94%

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