Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

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CECEP Solar Energy Co.,Ltd. (000591.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.85 - $14.43$8.74
Multi-Stage$5.98 - $6.54$6.26
Blended Fair Value$7.50
Current Price$4.54
Upside65.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.12%8.88%0.300.130.110.100.080.080.060.020.150.20
YoY Growth--133.11%17.43%14.27%12.73%5.77%42.47%208.85%-87.70%-28.03%61.17%
Dividend Yield--6.72%2.40%1.59%1.09%1.23%2.47%1.31%0.38%2.72%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,059.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)668.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)391.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.97132.4879.49
Cash Retained (M)391.01391.01391.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.97-132.48-79.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.03258.52311.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,918.663,918.663,918.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$5.85$8.74$14.43
Upside / Downside28.79%92.52%217.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,059.871,107.031,156.291,207.741,261.481,317.611,357.14
Payout Ratio63.11%68.49%73.86%79.24%84.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)668.87758.17854.09957.051,067.481,185.851,255.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)699.97706.73713.50
Year 2 PV (M)728.00742.14756.42
Year 3 PV (M)753.14775.19797.67
Year 4 PV (M)775.55805.98837.29
Year 5 PV (M)795.41834.61875.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,684.3220,654.2921,662.13
Equity Value (M)23,436.4024,518.9525,642.34
Shares Outstanding (M)3,918.663,918.663,918.66
Fair Value$5.98$6.26$6.54
Upside / Downside31.73%37.82%44.13%

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