Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Int'l Group Co.,Ltd. (000411.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.73 - $102.63$45.17
Multi-Stage$17.44 - $19.02$18.22
Blended Fair Value$31.69
Current Price$11.23
Upside182.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.46%9.50%0.550.390.340.290.230.360.240.240.170.19
YoY Growth--41.23%14.28%18.41%25.87%-37.61%51.91%-1.20%43.90%-11.45%-13.66%
Dividend Yield--5.24%3.59%2.73%2.37%2.01%3.85%2.07%1.23%0.85%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)493.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)188.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.6161.6336.98
Cash Retained (M)188.85188.85188.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.61-61.63-36.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.24127.22151.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)539.39539.39539.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.73$45.17$102.63
Upside / Downside138.07%302.25%813.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)493.03525.07559.20595.55634.26675.49695.76
Payout Ratio61.70%67.36%73.02%78.68%84.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.18353.68408.32468.57534.93607.94643.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)323.25326.31329.38
Year 2 PV (M)341.09347.58354.14
Year 3 PV (M)357.74368.01378.48
Year 4 PV (M)373.27387.63402.39
Year 5 PV (M)387.72406.45425.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,621.147,989.248,371.43
Equity Value (M)9,404.219,825.2210,261.71
Shares Outstanding (M)539.39539.39539.39
Fair Value$17.44$18.22$19.02
Upside / Downside55.25%62.20%69.41%

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