Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Volgogradenergosbyt Public Joint-Stock Company (VGSB.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.14 - $67.80$55.17
Multi-Stage$93.41 - $103.02$98.12
Blended Fair Value$76.64
Current Price$10.00
Upside666.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,943.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,928.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)388.75242.97145.78
Cash Retained (M)1,928.111,928.111,928.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-388.75-242.97-145.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,539.361,685.141,782.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.214.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.254.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$44.14$55.17$67.80
Upside / Downside341.44%451.69%577.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,943.751,924.311,905.061,886.011,867.151,848.481,903.94
Payout Ratio0.80%18.64%36.48%54.32%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.63358.76695.021,024.511,347.351,663.631,761.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)333.06336.46339.85
Year 2 PV (M)599.01611.29623.71
Year 3 PV (M)819.74845.09870.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,000.821,042.301,085.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,147.231,206.971,269.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,472.6035,215.6037,030.46
Equity Value (M)37,372.4539,257.7041,219.20
Shares Outstanding (M)400.10400.10400.10
Fair Value$93.41$98.12$103.02
Upside / Downside834.09%881.21%930.23%

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