Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tsogo Sun Gaming Limited (TSG.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.65 - $35.06$28.40
Multi-Stage$71.13 - $78.42$74.70
Blended Fair Value$51.55
Current Price$6.53
Upside689.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.49%-2.49%0.700.870.490.000.000.842.060.981.070.84
YoY Growth---19.60%76.65%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-59.20%110.54%-8.39%26.20%-6.50%
Dividend Yield--8.49%8.08%4.08%0.00%0.00%27.07%10.29%4.19%3.86%3.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,553.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,669.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)884.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)510.60319.13191.48
Cash Retained (M)884.00884.00884.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-510.60-319.13-191.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)373.40564.88692.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,039.241,039.241,039.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.540.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.540.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-2.99%-1.99%-0.99%
Fair Value$22.65$28.40$35.06
Upside / Downside246.87%334.98%436.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,553.002,502.322,452.642,403.952,356.222,309.442,378.73
Payout Ratio65.37%70.30%75.22%80.15%85.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,669.001,759.111,844.981,926.752,004.552,078.502,200.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-2.99%-1.99%-0.99%
Year 1 PV (M)1,651.451,668.481,685.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,626.071,659.761,693.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,594.211,644.021,694.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,557.081,622.281,689.50
Year 5 PV (M)1,515.711,595.451,678.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,972.0369,442.9673,058.46
Equity Value (M)73,916.5577,632.9581,500.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,039.241,039.241,039.24
Fair Value$71.13$74.70$78.42
Upside / Downside989.22%1,043.98%1,100.97%

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