Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.49 - $7.53$6.52
Multi-Stage$7.08 - $7.76$7.41
Blended Fair Value$6.97
Current Price$23.69
Upside-70.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.200.150.070.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.76%35.86%104.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%1.38%1.00%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8925.5615.33
Cash Retained (M)170.74170.74170.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.89-25.56-15.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.85145.18155.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.68202.68202.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate12.40%12.40%12.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.49$6.52$7.53
Upside / Downside-76.81%-72.47%-68.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.45202.41200.38198.38196.40194.43200.27
Payout Ratio16.49%31.19%45.89%60.60%75.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7263.1491.97120.21147.88174.99185.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.40%12.40%12.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)55.6156.1756.74
Year 2 PV (M)71.3372.8074.27
Year 3 PV (M)82.1284.6687.25
Year 4 PV (M)88.9792.6696.46
Year 5 PV (M)92.7297.55102.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,044.441,098.831,155.45
Equity Value (M)1,435.191,502.661,572.76
Shares Outstanding (M)202.68202.68202.68
Fair Value$7.08$7.41$7.76
Upside / Downside-70.11%-68.70%-67.24%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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