DDM Analysis: SRP.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.99 - $3.27	$2.56
Multi-Stage	$3.50 - $3.84	$3.67
Blended Fair Value	$3.11
Current Price	$2.02
Upside	54.09%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	-3.19%	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	13.95%	11.22%	14.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.40%	1.95%	1.85%	1.85%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	187.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	100.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	86.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.52	23.45	14.07
Cash Retained (M)	86.90	86.90	86.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.52	-23.45	-14.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)	49.38	63.45	72.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,059.41	1,059.41	1,059.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	-0.07%	0.93%	1.93%
Fair Value	$1.99	$2.56	$3.27
Upside / Downside	-1.48%	26.64%	61.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	187.60	189.34	191.10	192.87	194.66	196.47	202.36
Payout Ratio	53.68%	60.94%	68.21%	75.47%	82.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	100.70	115.39	130.34	145.56	161.06	176.82	187.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	-0.07%	0.93%	1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)	106.73	107.80	108.87
Year 2 PV (M)	111.52	113.76	116.02
Year 3 PV (M)	115.19	118.69	122.25
Year 4 PV (M)	117.89	122.68	127.61
Year 5 PV (M)	119.72	125.83	132.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,136.06	3,296.14	3,462.70
Equity Value (M)	3,707.10	3,884.89	4,069.64
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,059.41	1,059.41	1,059.41
Fair Value	$3.50	$3.67	$3.84
Upside / Downside	73.23%	81.54%	90.17%

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Serco Group plc (SRP.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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