Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sumber Mas Konstruksi Tbk (SMKM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.20 - $476.28$215.56
Multi-Stage$228.74 - $252.80$240.53
Blended Fair Value$228.04
Current Price$76.00
Upside200.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.501.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.02%2.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,225.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)626.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,599.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645.17403.23241.94
Cash Retained (M)2,599.352,599.352,599.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-645.17-403.23-241.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,954.182,196.122,357.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,253.001,253.001,253.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.751.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.751.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate0.03%0.03%0.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$99.20$215.56$476.28
Upside / Downside30.53%183.63%526.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,225.853,193.593,161.663,130.043,098.743,067.753,159.79
Payout Ratio19.42%33.54%47.65%61.77%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)626.501,071.031,506.621,933.382,351.462,760.982,922.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.03%0.03%0.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,059.851,070.661,081.48
Year 2 PV (M)1,475.311,505.571,536.14
Year 3 PV (M)1,873.441,931.371,990.49
Year 4 PV (M)2,254.762,348.202,444.53
Year 5 PV (M)2,619.792,756.212,898.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)277,333.65291,775.05306,811.89
Equity Value (M)286,616.79301,387.08316,762.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,253.001,253.001,253.00
Fair Value$228.74$240.53$252.80
Upside / Downside200.98%216.49%232.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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