DDM Analysis: SMIN.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.10 - $25.56	$20.41
Multi-Stage	$23.00 - $25.20	$24.08
Blended Fair Value	$22.24
Current Price	$20.66
Upside	7.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	3.82%	-0.51%	0.44	0.42	0.41	0.43	0.53	0.36	0.51	0.50	0.48	0.47
YoY Growth	-	-	3.40%	2.80%	-4.67%	-18.92%	46.83%	-29.21%	3.49%	2.99%	2.45%	1.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	2.37%	2.43%	2.85%	3.43%	2.68%	3.13%	3.07%	3.14%	3.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	539.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	251.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	288.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	107.80	67.38	40.43
Cash Retained (M)	288.00	288.00	288.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-107.80	-67.38	-40.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	180.20	220.63	247.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	346.74	346.74	346.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.64	0.71
LTM Dividend per Share	0.72	0.72	0.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.64	0.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.24	1.36	1.44
WACC / Discount Rate	8.51%	8.51%	8.51%
Growth Rate	0.73%	1.73%	2.73%
Fair Value	$16.10	$20.41	$25.56
Upside / Downside	-22.06%	-1.21%	23.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	539.00	548.31	557.79	567.42	577.23	587.20	604.82
Payout Ratio	46.57%	55.25%	63.94%	72.63%	81.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	251.00	302.97	356.65	412.10	469.36	528.48	559.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.51%	8.51%	8.51%
Growth Rate	0.73%	1.73%	2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)	276.47	279.21	281.96
Year 2 PV (M)	296.99	302.92	308.91
Year 3 PV (M)	313.16	322.58	332.18
Year 4 PV (M)	325.47	338.59	352.10
Year 5 PV (M)	334.42	351.35	368.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,428.38	6,753.87	7,092.42
Equity Value (M)	7,974.89	8,348.52	8,736.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	346.74	346.74	346.74
Fair Value	$23.00	$24.08	$25.20
Upside / Downside	11.32%	16.54%	21.96%

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Smiths Group plc (SMIN.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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