DDM Analysis: SMBR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$241.34 - $380.86	$305.16
Multi-Stage	$463.55 - $510.50	$486.56
Blended Fair Value	$395.86
Current Price	$278.00
Upside	42.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.09%	-11.01%	2.45	1.91	0.00	0.00	0.62	1.91	3.69	6.52	8.91	8.26
YoY Growth	-	-	28.20%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-67.54%	-48.25%	-43.40%	-26.85%	7.86%	5.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.44%	0.79%	0.00%	0.00%	0.08%	0.97%	0.28%	0.16%	0.26%	2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	239,953.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25,850.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	214,102.79

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	47,990.72	29,994.20	17,996.52
Cash Retained (M)	214,102.79	214,102.79	214,102.79
(-) Cash Required (M)	-47,990.72	-29,994.20	-17,996.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	166,112.07	184,108.59	196,106.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,932.53	9,932.53	9,932.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.72	18.54	19.74
LTM Dividend per Share	2.60	2.60	2.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.72	18.54	19.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	19.33	21.14	22.35
WACC / Discount Rate	6.82%	6.82%	6.82%
Growth Rate	-1.10%	-0.10%	0.90%
Fair Value	$241.34	$305.16	$380.86
Upside / Downside	-13.19%	9.77%	37.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	239,953.60	239,718.80	239,484.24	239,249.91	239,015.81	238,781.94	245,945.40
Payout Ratio	10.77%	26.62%	42.46%	58.31%	74.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25,850.81	63,809.80	101,694.47	139,504.95	177,241.34	214,903.75	227,499.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.82%	6.82%	6.82%
Growth Rate	-1.10%	-0.10%	0.90%
Year 1 PV (M)	59,136.54	59,734.47	60,332.40
Year 2 PV (M)	87,344.27	89,119.48	90,912.54
Year 3 PV (M)	111,044.04	114,446.51	117,917.79
Year 4 PV (M)	130,749.25	136,118.01	141,650.45
Year 5 PV (M)	146,921.95	154,501.32	162,390.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,068,987.23	4,278,897.05	4,497,381.86
Equity Value (M)	4,604,183.28	4,832,816.84	5,070,585.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,932.53	9,932.53	9,932.53
Fair Value	$463.55	$486.56	$510.50
Upside / Downside	66.74%	75.02%	83.63%

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PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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