Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SamaraEnergo (SAGO.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.29 - $8.16$6.62
Multi-Stage$11.51 - $12.69$12.09
Blended Fair Value$9.36
Current Price$2.49
Upside275.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.260.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--80.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.65%3.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,989.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,954.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)397.99248.74149.25
Cash Retained (M)1,954.681,954.681,954.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-397.99-248.74-149.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,556.691,705.931,805.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,480.633,480.633,480.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.29$6.62$8.16
Upside / Downside112.34%166.00%227.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,989.951,970.051,950.351,930.841,911.541,892.421,949.19
Payout Ratio1.77%19.42%37.06%54.71%72.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.27382.54722.871,056.351,383.081,703.181,803.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)355.64359.27362.90
Year 2 PV (M)624.78637.59650.54
Year 3 PV (M)848.80875.05901.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,033.191,076.011,120.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,182.841,244.441,308.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,008.8137,883.8739,836.25
Equity Value (M)40,054.0742,076.2444,180.25
Shares Outstanding (M)3,480.633,480.633,480.63
Fair Value$11.51$12.09$12.69
Upside / Downside362.16%385.49%409.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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