DDM Analysis: PZOL.TA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$366.29 - $519.33	$441.80
Multi-Stage	$553.66 - $607.75	$580.18
Blended Fair Value	$510.99
Current Price	$391.90
Upside	30.39%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.46	25.47	36.39	27.29	15.47	22.74	45.49
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-78.57%	-30.00%	33.33%	76.47%	-32.00%	-50.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.87%	13.79%	11.03%	8.55%	4.16%	6.15%	12.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	612.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	462.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	122.40	76.50	45.90
Cash Retained (M)	462.00	462.00	462.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-122.40	-76.50	-45.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	339.60	385.50	416.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10.99	10.99	10.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	30.89	35.07	37.85
LTM Dividend per Share	13.65	13.65	13.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share	30.89	35.07	37.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	44.54	48.72	51.50
WACC / Discount Rate	9.92%	9.92%	9.92%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$366.29	$441.80	$519.33
Upside / Downside	-6.53%	12.73%	32.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	612.00	605.88	599.82	593.82	587.88	582.01	599.47
Payout Ratio	24.51%	37.61%	50.71%	63.80%	76.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	150.00	227.86	304.14	378.88	452.09	523.81	554.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.92%	9.92%	9.92%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	205.21	207.30	209.40
Year 2 PV (M)	246.68	251.74	256.85
Year 3 PV (M)	276.75	285.31	294.04
Year 4 PV (M)	297.40	309.73	322.43
Year 5 PV (M)	310.32	326.48	343.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,749.73	4,997.06	5,254.59
Equity Value (M)	6,086.09	6,377.62	6,680.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	10.99	10.99	10.99
Fair Value	$553.66	$580.18	$607.75
Upside / Downside	41.28%	48.04%	55.08%

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Paz Oil Company Ltd. (PZOL.TA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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