Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ölgerðin Egill Skallagrímsson hf. (OLGERD.IC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.59 - $10.13$8.24
Multi-Stage$14.76 - $16.23$15.48
Blended Fair Value$11.86
Current Price$18.20
Upside-34.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.450.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,259.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,418.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)840.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)451.93282.45169.47
Cash Retained (M)840.78840.78840.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-451.93-282.45-169.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)388.85558.32671.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,124.663,124.663,124.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.59$8.24$10.13
Upside / Downside-63.80%-54.74%-44.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,259.642,237.042,214.672,192.522,170.602,148.892,213.36
Payout Ratio62.79%68.23%73.67%79.12%84.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,418.861,526.401,631.651,734.651,835.421,934.002,047.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,417.371,431.831,446.29
Year 2 PV (M)1,406.871,435.731,464.88
Year 3 PV (M)1,388.831,431.781,475.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,364.541,421.101,479.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,335.121,404.641,477.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,204.5041,245.9743,371.61
Equity Value (M)46,117.2348,371.0550,714.81
Shares Outstanding (M)3,124.663,124.663,124.66
Fair Value$14.76$15.48$16.23
Upside / Downside-18.91%-14.94%-10.82%

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