DDM Analysis: NTBR.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.72 - $10.13	$6.73
Multi-Stage	$3.46 - $3.78	$3.62
Blended Fair Value	$5.17
Current Price	$0.65
Upside	702.03%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-17.98%	7.53%	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-58.88%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.14%	-0.27%	110.20%	33.21%	99.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.69%	7.21%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	9.35%	7.24%	6.64%	4.01%	3.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.99

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.79	0.49	0.29
Cash Retained (M)	2.99	2.99	2.99
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.79	-0.49	-0.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.20	2.49	2.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.85	15.85	15.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	5.49%	6.49%	7.49%
Fair Value	$4.72	$6.73	$10.13
Upside / Downside	631.72%	943.23%	1,470.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3.93	4.18	4.46	4.75	5.05	5.38	5.54
Payout Ratio	24.02%	37.22%	50.41%	63.61%	76.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.94	1.56	2.25	3.02	3.88	4.84	5.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	5.49%	6.49%	7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)	1.40	1.42	1.43
Year 2 PV (M)	1.82	1.86	1.89
Year 3 PV (M)	2.21	2.27	2.34
Year 4 PV (M)	2.56	2.66	2.76
Year 5 PV (M)	2.88	3.02	3.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	43.98	46.10	48.31
Equity Value (M)	54.85	57.33	59.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.85	15.85	15.85
Fair Value	$3.46	$3.62	$3.78
Upside / Downside	436.63%	460.82%	485.91%

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Northern Bear PLC (NTBR.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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