DDM Analysis: NTBK.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.07 - $2.95	$2.50
Multi-Stage	$3.15 - $3.46	$3.30
Blended Fair Value	$2.90
Current Price	$58.00
Upside	-95.00%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.16	0.13	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	24.26%	80.86%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.32%	0.25%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	821.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	128.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	693.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	164.30	102.69	61.61
Cash Retained (M)	693.37	693.37	693.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-164.30	-102.69	-61.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)	529.08	590.69	631.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,675.82	2,675.82	2,675.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.22	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.22	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	9.63%	9.63%	9.63%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.07	$2.50	$2.95
Upside / Downside	-96.43%	-95.69%	-94.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	821.48	813.27	805.14	797.09	789.11	781.22	804.66
Payout Ratio	15.60%	30.48%	45.36%	60.24%	75.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	128.11	247.85	365.19	480.15	592.78	703.10	744.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.63%	9.63%	9.63%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	223.80	226.08	228.36
Year 2 PV (M)	297.74	303.85	310.02
Year 3 PV (M)	353.48	364.41	375.56
Year 4 PV (M)	394.04	410.37	427.20
Year 5 PV (M)	422.01	443.99	466.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,738.40	7,089.28	7,454.63
Equity Value (M)	8,429.46	8,837.98	9,262.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,675.82	2,675.82	2,675.82
Fair Value	$3.15	$3.30	$3.46
Upside / Downside	-94.57%	-94.31%	-94.03%

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PT Nusatama Berkah Tbk (NTBK.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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