DDM Analysis: NST.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$137.88 - $334.53	$313.50
Multi-Stage	$49.12 - $53.75	$51.39
Blended Fair Value	$182.45
Current Price	$18.55
Upside	883.55%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	62.94%	35.63%	0.48	0.28	0.22	0.19	0.26	0.04	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	67.49%	30.71%	16.95%	-29.69%	537.97%	-30.81%	11.06%	5.47%	66.74%	35.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.56%	2.20%	1.80%	2.71%	2.70%	0.31%	0.53%	0.74%	1.07%	0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,978.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	892.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,085.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	395.64	247.28	148.37
Cash Retained (M)	1,085.60	1,085.60	1,085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-395.64	-247.28	-148.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	689.96	838.33	937.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,176.03	1,176.03	1,176.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.71	0.80
LTM Dividend per Share	0.76	0.76	0.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.71	0.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.35	1.47	1.56
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$137.88	$313.50	$334.53
Upside / Downside	643.27%	1,590.03%	1,703.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,978.20	2,106.78	2,243.72	2,389.57	2,544.89	2,710.31	2,791.61
Payout Ratio	45.12%	54.10%	63.07%	72.05%	81.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	892.60	1,139.72	1,415.19	1,721.65	2,061.98	2,439.27	2,582.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,059.81	1,069.86	1,079.90
Year 2 PV (M)	1,223.71	1,247.02	1,270.54
Year 3 PV (M)	1,384.34	1,424.08	1,464.57
Year 4 PV (M)	1,541.75	1,601.04	1,662.02
Year 5 PV (M)	1,695.98	1,777.90	1,862.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	50,865.31	53,322.13	55,872.97
Equity Value (M)	57,770.90	60,442.02	63,212.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,176.03	1,176.03	1,176.03
Fair Value	$49.12	$51.39	$53.75
Upside / Downside	164.82%	177.06%	189.76%

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Northern Star Resources Limited (NST.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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