DDM Analysis: NICL.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$437.98 - $660.59	$543.05
Multi-Stage	$932.40 - $1,022.57	$976.61
Blended Fair Value	$759.83
Current Price	$1,050.00
Upside	-27.64%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	17.50	6.74	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	159.48%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.87%	4.53%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	545,696.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	542,330.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,366.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	109,139.40	68,212.12	40,927.27
Cash Retained (M)	3,366.39	3,366.39	3,366.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-109,139.40	-68,212.12	-40,927.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-105,773.01	-64,845.74	-37,560.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,635.40	10,635.40	10,635.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-9.95	-6.10	-3.53
LTM Dividend per Share	50.99	50.99	50.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-9.95	-6.10	-3.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	41.05	44.90	47.46
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$437.98	$543.05	$660.59
Upside / Downside	-58.29%	-48.28%	-37.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	545,696.99	540,240.02	534,837.61	529,489.24	524,194.35	518,952.40	534,520.98
Payout Ratio	99.38%	97.51%	95.63%	93.75%	91.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	542,330.60	526,769.04	511,464.47	496,413.32	481,612.05	467,057.16	494,431.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	486,495.09	491,459.33	496,423.56
Year 2 PV (M)	436,246.47	445,194.88	454,234.14
Year 3 PV (M)	391,037.22	403,130.32	415,470.20
Year 4 PV (M)	350,372.68	364,894.00	379,862.08
Year 5 PV (M)	313,805.94	330,146.54	347,160.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,938,470.71	8,351,845.30	8,782,263.60
Equity Value (M)	9,916,428.12	10,386,670.36	10,875,414.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,635.40	10,635.40	10,635.40
Fair Value	$932.40	$976.61	$1,022.57
Upside / Downside	-11.20%	-6.99%	-2.61%

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PT PAM Mineral Tbk (NICL.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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