DDM Analysis: NELLY.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$43.12 - $65.67	$53.69
Multi-Stage	$88.82 - $97.86	$93.25
Blended Fair Value	$73.47
Current Price	$78.50
Upside	-6.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.83	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.47%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	146.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	121.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29.30	18.31	10.99
Cash Retained (M)	121.60	121.60	121.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29.30	-18.31	-10.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	92.30	103.29	110.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	30.01	30.01	30.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.08	3.44	3.69
LTM Dividend per Share	0.83	0.83	0.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.08	3.44	3.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.91	4.27	4.52
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$43.12	$53.69	$65.67
Upside / Downside	-45.07%	-31.60%	-16.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	146.50	145.04	143.58	142.15	140.73	139.32	143.50
Payout Ratio	17.00%	31.60%	46.20%	60.80%	75.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.90	45.83	66.33	86.42	106.11	125.39	132.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	42.45	42.88	43.31
Year 2 PV (M)	56.90	58.07	59.25
Year 3 PV (M)	68.67	70.79	72.96
Year 4 PV (M)	78.09	81.32	84.66
Year 5 PV (M)	85.47	89.92	94.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,333.85	2,455.38	2,581.92
Equity Value (M)	2,665.43	2,798.37	2,936.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	30.01	30.01	30.01
Fair Value	$88.82	$93.25	$97.86
Upside / Downside	13.15%	18.80%	24.67%

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Nelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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