Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,208.62 - $24,961.39$16,561.68
Multi-Stage$3,015.48 - $3,299.26$3,154.77
Blended Fair Value$9,858.23
Current Price$1,190.00
Upside728.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS67.71%0.00%26.4950.218.2615.020.002.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---47.24%507.68%-45.01%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.84%5.67%0.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,987,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,367,057.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,620,232.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,597,457.80998,411.13599,046.68
Cash Retained (M)5,620,232.005,620,232.005,620,232.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,597,457.80-998,411.13-599,046.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,022,774.204,621,820.885,021,185.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63,637.1663,637.1663,637.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.2172.6378.90
LTM Dividend per Share37.2037.2037.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.2172.6378.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.41109.82116.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,208.62$16,561.68$24,961.39
Upside / Downside421.73%1,291.74%1,997.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,987,289.008,506,462.799,059,382.879,648,242.7510,275,378.5310,943,278.1411,271,576.48
Payout Ratio29.64%41.71%53.78%65.85%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,367,057.003,547,895.874,872,242.976,353,765.338,007,300.389,848,950.3210,426,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,278,337.943,309,412.243,340,486.53
Year 2 PV (M)4,160,012.634,239,249.184,319,233.25
Year 3 PV (M)5,012,792.625,156,691.885,303,319.01
Year 4 PV (M)5,837,374.336,061,863.276,292,765.70
Year 5 PV (M)6,634,439.316,954,885.217,287,595.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)166,973,814.06175,038,711.71183,412,271.98
Equity Value (M)191,896,770.89200,760,813.49209,955,671.81
Shares Outstanding (M)63,637.1663,637.1663,637.16
Fair Value$3,015.48$3,154.77$3,299.26
Upside / Downside153.40%165.11%177.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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