DDM Analysis: MGRO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$61.29 - $101.70	$79.15
Multi-Stage	$202.94 - $224.11	$213.32
Blended Fair Value	$146.23
Current Price	$790.00
Upside	-81.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.70%	0.00%	2.00	0.00	7.01	0.00	1.00	6.00	0.00	7.11	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-83.30%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.29%	0.00%	0.95%	0.00%	0.14%	0.95%	0.00%	2.10%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19,034.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,499.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	17,535.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,806.95	2,379.34	1,427.60
Cash Retained (M)	17,535.00	17,535.00	17,535.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,806.95	-2,379.34	-1,427.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13,728.05	15,155.66	16,107.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,518.46	3,518.46	3,518.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.90	4.31	4.58
LTM Dividend per Share	0.43	0.43	0.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.90	4.31	4.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.33	4.73	5.00
WACC / Discount Rate	4.92%	4.92%	4.92%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$61.29	$79.15	$101.70
Upside / Downside	-92.24%	-89.98%	-87.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19,034.73	18,844.39	18,655.94	18,469.38	18,284.69	18,101.84	18,644.90
Payout Ratio	7.88%	24.30%	40.73%	57.15%	73.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,499.73	4,579.78	7,598.07	10,555.54	13,453.10	16,291.66	17,246.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.92%	4.92%	4.92%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,320.90	4,364.99	4,409.08
Year 2 PV (M)	6,763.37	6,902.10	7,042.24
Year 3 PV (M)	8,864.82	9,138.97	9,418.71
Year 4 PV (M)	10,659.61	11,101.41	11,556.79
Year 5 PV (M)	12,179.07	12,813.26	13,473.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	671,264.63	706,218.94	742,614.44
Equity Value (M)	714,052.40	750,539.66	788,514.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,518.46	3,518.46	3,518.46
Fair Value	$202.94	$213.32	$224.11
Upside / Downside	-74.31%	-73.00%	-71.63%

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PT Mahkota Group Tbk (MGRO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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