DDM Analysis: MEOH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.14 - $58.32	$45.38
Multi-Stage	$69.72 - $76.73	$73.16
Blended Fair Value	$59.27
Current Price	$33.10
Upside	79.06%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.69%	-5.72%	0.71	0.71	0.60	0.35	0.54	1.58	1.51	1.45	1.41	1.39
YoY Growth	-	-	0.99%	16.97%	72.88%	-35.58%	-65.66%	4.46%	4.12%	2.73%	1.62%	8.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.03%	1.58%	1.30%	0.64%	1.47%	12.95%	2.57%	2.40%	3.01%	4.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	213.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	51.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	162.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	42.76	26.72	16.03
Cash Retained (M)	162.31	162.31	162.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-42.76	-26.72	-16.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	119.56	135.59	146.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	70.03	70.03	70.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.71	1.94	2.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.73	0.73	0.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.71	1.94	2.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.44	2.67	2.82
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-0.56%	0.44%	1.44%
Fair Value	$35.14	$45.38	$58.32
Upside / Downside	6.16%	37.11%	76.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	213.78	214.73	215.68	216.63	217.59	218.56	225.11
Payout Ratio	24.08%	37.26%	50.45%	63.63%	76.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	51.47	80.01	108.80	137.84	167.14	196.70	208.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-0.56%	0.44%	1.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	74.48	75.23	75.98
Year 2 PV (M)	94.28	96.19	98.11
Year 3 PV (M)	111.20	114.58	118.04
Year 4 PV (M)	125.51	130.64	135.92
Year 5 PV (M)	137.50	144.55	151.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,339.24	4,561.85	4,793.51
Equity Value (M)	4,882.21	5,123.04	5,373.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	70.03	70.03	70.03
Fair Value	$69.72	$73.16	$76.73
Upside / Downside	110.63%	121.02%	131.82%

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Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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