DDM Analysis: LTMC.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.67 - $7.01	$5.78
Multi-Stage	$9.34 - $10.26	$9.79
Blended Fair Value	$7.78
Current Price	$22.92
Upside	-66.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.27	0.01	0.08	1.00	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	3,287.83%	-89.76%	-92.26%	2,792.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.44%	0.07%	0.94%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	139.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	77.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	61.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.88	17.43	10.46
Cash Retained (M)	61.52	61.52	61.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.88	-17.43	-10.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	33.63	44.09	51.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	250.52	250.52	250.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.31	0.31	0.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.45	0.49	0.51
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.67	$5.78	$7.01
Upside / Downside	-79.63%	-74.80%	-69.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	139.42	138.03	136.65	135.28	133.93	132.59	136.57
Payout Ratio	55.88%	62.70%	69.53%	76.35%	83.18%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	77.90	86.54	95.01	103.29	111.40	119.33	126.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	79.81	80.62	81.44
Year 2 PV (M)	80.79	82.44	84.12
Year 3 PV (M)	80.99	83.50	86.05
Year 4 PV (M)	80.55	83.89	87.33
Year 5 PV (M)	79.57	83.71	88.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,937.49	2,038.38	2,143.43
Equity Value (M)	2,339.20	2,452.55	2,570.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	250.52	250.52	250.52
Fair Value	$9.34	$9.79	$10.26
Upside / Downside	-59.26%	-57.29%	-55.24%

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Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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