Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Kinross Gold Corporation (KIN2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.97 - $19.68$16.12
Multi-Stage$14.17 - $15.52$14.83
Blended Fair Value$15.48
Current Price$24.58
Upside-37.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.120.130.120.060.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.14%-4.35%1.92%100.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.94%2.65%2.09%0.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,752.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,606.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)350.54219.09131.45
Cash Retained (M)1,606.571,606.571,606.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-350.54-219.09-131.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,256.021,387.481,475.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,230.051,230.051,230.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.131.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.131.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate11.00%11.00%11.00%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$12.97$16.12$19.68
Upside / Downside-47.23%-34.40%-19.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,752.721,805.931,860.761,917.251,975.462,035.442,096.50
Payout Ratio8.34%24.67%41.00%57.34%73.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.15445.54762.971,099.261,455.281,831.901,939.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.00%11.00%11.00%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)397.47401.37405.27
Year 2 PV (M)607.24619.20631.28
Year 3 PV (M)780.52803.69827.32
Year 4 PV (M)921.84958.51996.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,035.231,086.961,140.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,692.3814,376.6215,087.94
Equity Value (M)17,434.6718,246.3519,088.81
Shares Outstanding (M)1,230.051,230.051,230.05
Fair Value$14.17$14.83$15.52
Upside / Downside-42.34%-39.65%-36.86%

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