DDM Analysis: KIE.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.29 - $3.70	$2.92
Multi-Stage	$6.52 - $7.19	$6.85
Blended Fair Value	$4.89
Current Price	$2.09
Upside	133.78%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	-4.72%	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.14	0.11	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	230.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-20.42%	33.81%	-0.60%	27.11%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.51%	1.19%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	12.76%	1.79%	1.05%	1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	99.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	31.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	67.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.82	12.39	7.43
Cash Retained (M)	67.70	67.70	67.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.82	-12.39	-7.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	47.88	55.31	60.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	458.60	458.60	458.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	5.40%	5.40%	5.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.29	$2.92	$3.70
Upside / Downside	9.49%	39.87%	77.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	99.10	98.11	97.13	96.16	95.20	94.24	97.07
Payout Ratio	31.69%	43.35%	55.01%	66.67%	78.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	31.40	42.53	53.43	64.11	74.57	84.82	89.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.40%	5.40%	5.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	39.94	40.35	40.76
Year 2 PV (M)	47.13	48.09	49.07
Year 3 PV (M)	53.11	54.75	56.42
Year 4 PV (M)	58.01	60.42	62.90
Year 5 PV (M)	61.97	65.20	68.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,729.81	2,871.96	3,019.97
Equity Value (M)	2,989.97	3,140.76	3,297.67
Shares Outstanding (M)	458.60	458.60	458.60
Fair Value	$6.52	$6.85	$7.19
Upside / Downside	211.95%	227.68%	244.05%

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Kier Group plc (KIE.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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