DDM Analysis: KGP.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$424.47 - $1,238.19	$1,160.36
Multi-Stage	$167.37 - $183.31	$175.19
Blended Fair Value	$667.78
Current Price	$72.20
Upside	824.90%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.48%	14.34%	0.53	0.50	0.51	0.40	0.00	0.42	0.37	0.34	0.26	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	5.92%	-2.67%	27.48%	0.00%	-100.00%	13.62%	10.70%	28.54%	50.94%	25.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.75%	0.63%	1.01%	0.38%	0.00%	0.78%	0.99%	0.91%	1.01%	0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,143.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	146.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	997.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	228.79	142.99	85.80
Cash Retained (M)	997.45	997.45	997.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-228.79	-142.99	-85.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	768.66	854.46	911.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	183.74	183.74	183.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.18	4.65	4.96
LTM Dividend per Share	0.80	0.80	0.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.18	4.65	4.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.98	5.45	5.76
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$424.47	$1,160.36	$1,238.19
Upside / Downside	487.91%	1,507.15%	1,614.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,143.95	1,218.31	1,297.50	1,381.83	1,471.65	1,567.31	1,614.33
Payout Ratio	12.81%	28.25%	43.68%	59.12%	74.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	146.50	344.11	566.80	816.98	1,097.28	1,410.58	1,493.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	319.36	322.39	325.42
Year 2 PV (M)	488.20	497.50	506.88
Year 3 PV (M)	653.07	671.82	690.92
Year 4 PV (M)	814.06	845.36	877.56
Year 5 PV (M)	971.22	1,018.13	1,066.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	27,505.58	28,834.11	30,213.49
Equity Value (M)	30,751.49	32,189.31	33,681.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	183.74	183.74	183.74
Fair Value	$167.37	$175.19	$183.31
Upside / Downside	131.81%	142.65%	153.89%

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Kingspan Group plc (KGP.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener