DDM Analysis: ICOS.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.60 - $7.11	$5.76
Multi-Stage	$10.40 - $11.46	$10.92
Blended Fair Value	$8.34
Current Price	$12.92
Upside	-35.44%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.19	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	12.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.45%	1.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	47.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	29.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.52	5.95	3.57
Cash Retained (M)	29.56	29.56	29.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.52	-5.95	-3.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	20.05	23.62	25.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	96.30	96.30	96.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.43	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%	6.43%	6.43%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.60	$5.76	$7.11
Upside / Downside	-64.42%	-55.40%	-44.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	47.58	47.10	46.63	46.17	45.71	45.25	46.61
Payout Ratio	37.87%	48.29%	58.72%	69.15%	79.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.02	22.75	27.38	31.92	36.37	40.72	43.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%	6.43%	6.43%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	21.16	21.37	21.59
Year 2 PV (M)	23.69	24.18	24.67
Year 3 PV (M)	25.69	26.48	27.29
Year 4 PV (M)	27.22	28.35	29.51
Year 5 PV (M)	28.35	29.83	31.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)	875.69	921.29	968.77
Equity Value (M)	1,001.80	1,051.50	1,103.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	96.30	96.30	96.30
Fair Value	$10.40	$10.92	$11.46
Upside / Downside	-19.48%	-15.49%	-11.33%

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Intercos S.p.A. (ICOS.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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