Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.58 - $190.08$146.44
Multi-Stage$419.70 - $463.67$441.24
Blended Fair Value$293.84
Current Price$65.95
Upside345.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.070.070.050.050.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.80%20.77%15.64%36.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.14%0.12%0.12%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,611.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,580.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)722.22451.39270.83
Cash Retained (M)3,580.103,580.103,580.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-722.22-451.39-270.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,857.883,128.713,309.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)378.78378.78378.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.548.268.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.548.268.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.638.348.82
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$112.58$146.44$190.08
Upside / Downside70.70%122.05%188.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,611.103,574.993,539.243,503.853,468.813,434.123,537.14
Payout Ratio0.86%18.69%36.52%54.34%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.00668.051,292.361,904.112,503.503,090.713,271.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)631.98638.43644.88
Year 2 PV (M)1,156.581,180.301,204.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,612.061,661.911,712.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,005.082,088.192,173.84
Year 5 PV (M)2,341.752,463.692,590.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)151,229.33159,104.19167,303.74
Equity Value (M)158,976.77167,136.71175,630.16
Shares Outstanding (M)378.78378.78378.78
Fair Value$419.70$441.24$463.67
Upside / Downside536.39%569.06%603.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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