DDM Analysis: ECSC.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$40.56 - $60.31	$49.98
Multi-Stage	$75.10 - $82.64	$78.80
Blended Fair Value	$64.39
Current Price	$0.53
Upside	12,164.00%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2015	2014	2013
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-9.23%	27.78%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	0.06%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	996.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	220.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	776.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	199.34	124.58	74.75
Cash Retained (M)	776.37	776.37	776.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-199.34	-124.58	-74.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	577.03	651.78	701.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	198.92	198.92	198.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.90	3.28	3.53
LTM Dividend per Share	1.11	1.11	1.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.90	3.28	3.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.01	4.38	4.63
WACC / Discount Rate	7.68%	7.68%	7.68%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$40.56	$49.98	$60.31
Upside / Downside	7,625.76%	9,419.19%	11,387.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	996.68	986.71	976.84	967.08	957.40	947.83	976.27
Payout Ratio	22.10%	35.68%	49.26%	62.84%	76.42%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	220.31	352.09	481.22	607.73	731.66	853.05	903.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.68%	7.68%	7.68%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	323.66	326.97	330.27
Year 2 PV (M)	406.65	414.99	423.41
Year 3 PV (M)	472.08	486.68	501.58
Year 4 PV (M)	522.46	544.12	566.44
Year 5 PV (M)	559.96	589.12	619.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,653.63	13,312.53	13,998.60
Equity Value (M)	14,938.45	15,674.41	16,439.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	198.92	198.92	198.92
Fair Value	$75.10	$78.80	$82.64
Upside / Downside	14,204.11%	14,908.82%	15,641.70%

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ECSC Group plc (ECSC.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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