DDM Analysis: DEZ.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.03 - $3.38	$2.62
Multi-Stage	$4.02 - $4.41	$4.21
Blended Fair Value	$3.42
Current Price	$7.63
Upside	-55.18%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.41%	9.67%	0.16	0.14	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	13.23%	3.85%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	112.94%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.31%	2.32%	2.22%	0.00%	0.00%	3.93%	1.71%	0.83%	0.96%	1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	23.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	23.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.76	2.98	1.79
Cash Retained (M)	0.20	0.20	0.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.76	-2.98	-1.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-4.56	-2.78	-1.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	137.21	137.21	137.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.29%	0.71%	1.71%
Fair Value	$2.03	$2.62	$3.38
Upside / Downside	-73.43%	-65.61%	-55.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	23.80	23.97	24.14	24.31	24.49	24.66	25.40
Payout Ratio	99.16%	97.33%	95.50%	93.66%	91.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	23.60	23.33	23.05	22.77	22.49	22.20	23.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.29%	0.71%	1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)	21.68	21.90	22.11
Year 2 PV (M)	19.91	20.31	20.72
Year 3 PV (M)	18.28	18.83	19.40
Year 4 PV (M)	16.77	17.45	18.16
Year 5 PV (M)	15.38	16.17	16.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	460.11	483.65	508.15
Equity Value (M)	552.13	578.32	605.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	137.21	137.21	137.21
Fair Value	$4.02	$4.21	$4.41
Upside / Downside	-47.26%	-44.76%	-42.16%

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Deutz AG (DEZ.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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