Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participações (CYRE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.41 - $116.95$87.88
Multi-Stage$95.31 - $104.72$99.92
Blended Fair Value$93.90
Current Price$30.70
Upside205.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.47%2.75%0.610.860.070.551.642.181.170.100.290.43
YoY Growth---29.45%1,166.78%-87.54%-66.52%-24.88%85.76%1,096.24%-66.30%-32.06%-8.01%
Dividend Yield--2.55%3.53%0.48%3.10%6.52%14.94%6.90%0.59%2.03%3.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,821.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,597.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.24227.65136.59
Cash Retained (M)1,597.441,597.441,597.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.24-227.65-136.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,233.201,369.791,460.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)366.77366.77366.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.363.733.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.363.733.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Fair Value$66.41$87.88$116.95
Upside / Downside116.33%186.24%280.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,821.191,861.101,901.901,943.581,986.192,029.722,090.61
Payout Ratio12.29%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.75517.92824.881,145.051,478.861,826.751,933.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)478.21482.93487.66
Year 2 PV (M)703.23717.20731.31
Year 3 PV (M)901.34928.32955.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,074.841,117.961,162.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,225.881,287.671,351.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,574.4332,115.3133,717.68
Equity Value (M)34,957.9336,649.3938,406.77
Shares Outstanding (M)366.77366.77366.77
Fair Value$95.31$99.92$104.72
Upside / Downside210.47%225.49%241.09%

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