DDM Analysis: CNH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.21 - $6.40	$5.24
Multi-Stage	$8.96 - $9.85	$9.40
Blended Fair Value	$7.32
Current Price	$10.85
Upside	-32.56%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	16.49%	0.00%	0.48	0.43	0.34	0.15	0.01	0.23	0.19	0.13	0.16	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	12.83%	27.19%	125.00%	2,250.00%	-97.17%	16.46%	44.64%	-16.42%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.94%	3.38%	2.21%	0.95%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	597.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	329.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	268.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	119.40	74.63	44.78
Cash Retained (M)	268.00	268.00	268.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-119.40	-74.63	-44.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	148.60	193.38	223.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,253.00	1,253.00	1,253.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.15	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.15	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.38	0.42	0.44
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.21	$5.24	$6.40
Upside / Downside	-61.24%	-51.74%	-40.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	597.00	591.03	585.12	579.27	573.48	567.74	584.77
Payout Ratio	55.11%	62.09%	69.07%	76.04%	83.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	329.00	366.95	404.11	440.50	476.11	510.97	540.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	339.85	343.32	346.79
Year 2 PV (M)	346.63	353.74	360.93
Year 3 PV (M)	349.94	360.76	371.80
Year 4 PV (M)	350.30	364.82	379.78
Year 5 PV (M)	348.18	366.31	385.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,492.59	9,986.89	10,501.57
Equity Value (M)	11,227.50	11,775.85	12,346.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,253.00	1,253.00	1,253.00
Fair Value	$8.96	$9.40	$9.85
Upside / Downside	-17.41%	-13.38%	-9.19%

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CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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