DDM Analysis: CASN3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$50.08 - $59.01	$55.30
Multi-Stage	$19.49 - $21.38	$20.42
Blended Fair Value	$37.86
Current Price	$10.45
Upside	262.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	13.12%	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	256.88%	-85.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.47%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	0.00%	0.07%	0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	349.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	57.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)	291.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	69.89	43.68	26.21
Cash Retained (M)	291.74	291.74	291.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-69.89	-43.68	-26.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	221.85	248.06	265.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,177.79	1,177.79	1,177.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	4.59%	4.59%	4.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$50.08	$55.30	$59.01
Upside / Downside	379.27%	429.17%	464.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	349.46	372.17	396.36	422.13	449.56	478.79	493.15
Payout Ratio	16.52%	31.21%	45.91%	60.61%	75.30%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	57.72	116.17	181.97	255.84	338.54	430.91	456.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.59%	4.59%	4.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	110.03	111.07	112.11
Year 2 PV (M)	163.24	166.35	169.49
Year 3 PV (M)	217.37	223.61	229.97
Year 4 PV (M)	272.43	282.90	293.68
Year 5 PV (M)	328.43	344.29	360.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)	21,862.02	22,917.96	24,014.32
Equity Value (M)	22,953.51	24,046.18	25,180.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,177.79	1,177.79	1,177.79
Fair Value	$19.49	$20.42	$21.38
Upside / Downside	86.49%	95.37%	104.59%

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Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento - CASAN (CASN3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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