DDM Analysis: CARD.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.85 - $2.71	$2.26
Multi-Stage	$3.00 - $3.30	$3.15
Blended Fair Value	$2.70
Current Price	$0.95
Upside	184.63%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-16.54%	0.00%	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.14	0.24	0.23	0.24
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-41.01%	2.22%	-2.05%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.97%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	15.82%	7.79%	12.31%	9.30%	6.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	83.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	51.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.74	10.46	6.28
Cash Retained (M)	51.30	51.30	51.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.74	-10.46	-6.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)	34.56	40.84	45.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	348.93	348.93	348.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%
Growth Rate	-1.42%	-0.42%	0.58%
Fair Value	$1.85	$2.26	$2.71
Upside / Downside	94.41%	138.04%	185.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	83.70	83.35	82.99	82.64	82.29	81.94	84.40
Payout Ratio	38.71%	48.97%	59.23%	69.48%	79.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.40	40.81	49.15	57.42	65.62	73.75	78.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%
Growth Rate	-1.42%	-0.42%	0.58%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.13	37.50	37.88
Year 2 PV (M)	40.68	41.51	42.35
Year 3 PV (M)	43.23	44.56	45.92
Year 4 PV (M)	44.95	46.80	48.71
Year 5 PV (M)	45.95	48.33	50.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	835.98	879.25	924.29
Equity Value (M)	1,047.92	1,097.95	1,149.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	348.93	348.93	348.93
Fair Value	$3.00	$3.15	$3.30
Upside / Downside	216.13%	231.22%	246.91%

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Card Factory plc (CARD.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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