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Blau Farmacêutica S.A. (BLAU3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.32 - $354.30$332.03
Multi-Stage$51.07 - $55.93$53.45
Blended Fair Value$192.74
Current Price$13.90
Upside1,286.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.78%42.49%0.320.370.760.591.850.660.190.240.070.01
YoY Growth---15.20%-51.18%30.14%-68.34%179.30%252.80%-23.12%241.55%404.04%55.10%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.27%3.37%2.24%5.02%1.80%0.51%0.66%0.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)316.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.3139.5723.74
Cash Retained (M)253.82253.82253.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.31-39.57-23.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.51214.25230.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.68177.68177.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$145.32$332.03$354.30
Upside / Downside945.49%2,288.68%2,448.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)316.54337.12359.03382.36407.22433.69446.70
Payout Ratio19.81%33.85%47.89%61.93%75.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.72114.12171.93236.78309.33390.32413.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.11107.12108.12
Year 2 PV (M)148.66151.49154.35
Year 3 PV (M)190.36195.83201.40
Year 4 PV (M)231.25240.14249.29
Year 5 PV (M)271.32284.42298.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,125.868,518.358,925.85
Equity Value (M)9,073.569,497.359,937.03
Shares Outstanding (M)177.68177.68177.68
Fair Value$51.07$53.45$55.93
Upside / Downside267.38%284.54%302.34%

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