DDM Analysis: BGSI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.02 - $10.89	$8.81
Multi-Stage	$16.37 - $18.01	$17.17
Blended Fair Value	$12.99
Current Price	$157.90
Upside	-91.77%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.45	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.67%	-1.71%	-1.12%	35.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.28%	0.28%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.21	2.01	1.21
Cash Retained (M)	6.71	6.71	6.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.21	-2.01	-1.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.50	4.70	5.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	21.49	21.49	21.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.22	0.26
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.22	0.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.65	0.69
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$7.02	$8.81	$10.89
Upside / Downside	-95.55%	-94.42%	-93.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16.07	15.91	15.75	15.59	15.44	15.28	15.74
Payout Ratio	58.23%	64.59%	70.94%	77.29%	83.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.36	10.28	11.17	12.05	12.91	13.76	14.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.57	9.66	9.76
Year 2 PV (M)	9.68	9.88	10.08
Year 3 PV (M)	9.72	10.02	10.33
Year 4 PV (M)	9.69	10.09	10.51
Year 5 PV (M)	9.61	10.11	10.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	303.56	319.37	335.83
Equity Value (M)	351.83	369.13	387.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	21.49	21.49	21.49
Fair Value	$16.37	$17.17	$18.01
Upside / Downside	-89.63%	-89.12%	-88.59%

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Boyd Group Services Inc. (BGSI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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