DDM Analysis: AVIO.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.86 - $1.11	$0.99
Multi-Stage	$1.96 - $2.15	$2.05
Blended Fair Value	$1.52
Current Price	$23.65
Upside	-93.56%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.35%	-39.73%	0.23	0.00	0.17	0.28	0.00	0.44	0.38	0.00	0.00	8.26
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	-38.53%	0.00%	-100.00%	15.78%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-76.82%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.62%	0.00%	1.77%	2.35%	0.00%	3.14%	3.34%	0.00%	0.00%	83.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.51	0.95	0.57
Cash Retained (M)	0.81	0.81	0.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.51	-0.95	-0.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.70	-0.13	0.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	26.62	26.62	26.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	-13.44%	-12.44%	-11.44%
Fair Value	$0.86	$0.99	$1.11
Upside / Downside	-96.37%	-95.80%	-95.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7.56	6.62	5.80	5.08	4.45	3.89	4.01
Payout Ratio	89.27%	89.42%	89.56%	89.71%	89.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.75	5.92	5.19	4.55	3.99	3.50	3.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	-13.44%	-12.44%	-11.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.35	5.41	5.47
Year 2 PV (M)	4.23	4.33	4.43
Year 3 PV (M)	3.35	3.47	3.59
Year 4 PV (M)	2.66	2.78	2.91
Year 5 PV (M)	2.10	2.23	2.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)	34.36	36.39	38.51
Equity Value (M)	52.05	54.61	57.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	26.62	26.62	26.62
Fair Value	$1.96	$2.05	$2.15
Upside / Downside	-91.73%	-91.33%	-90.90%

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Avio S.p.A. (AVIO.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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