DDM Analysis: AVAP.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.79 - $2.46	$2.13
Multi-Stage	$3.63 - $4.01	$3.82
Blended Fair Value	$2.97
Current Price	$1.90
Upside	56.54%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-41.86%	-8.71%	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	15.98%	59.39%	101.32%	9.90%	47.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.35%	2.35%	1.73%	0.87%	1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	24.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	24.01

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.89	3.06	1.83
Cash Retained (M)	24.01	24.01	24.01
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.89	-3.06	-1.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	19.12	20.95	22.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	71.70	71.70	71.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.29	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.29	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	8.23%	8.23%	8.23%
Growth Rate	-6.07%	-5.07%	-4.07%
Fair Value	$1.79	$2.13	$2.46
Upside / Downside	-5.60%	12.20%	29.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	24.46	23.22	22.05	20.93	19.87	18.86	19.43
Payout Ratio	1.84%	19.47%	37.10%	54.74%	72.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.45	4.52	8.18	11.46	14.38	16.98	17.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.23%	8.23%	8.23%
Growth Rate	-6.07%	-5.07%	-4.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.13	4.18	4.22
Year 2 PV (M)	6.84	6.98	7.13
Year 3 PV (M)	8.75	9.04	9.33
Year 4 PV (M)	10.05	10.48	10.93
Year 5 PV (M)	10.84	11.43	12.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	219.61	231.55	244.00
Equity Value (M)	260.22	273.66	287.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	71.70	71.70	71.70
Fair Value	$3.63	$3.82	$4.01
Upside / Downside	91.01%	100.87%	111.14%

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Avation PLC (AVAP.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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