DDM Analysis: ARML3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.36 - $31.69	$24.41
Multi-Stage	$4.00 - $4.38	$4.19
Blended Fair Value	$14.30
Current Price	$3.71
Upside	285.36%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	117.64%	0.00%	0.31	0.29	0.29	0.14	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	6.80%	0.52%	102.26%	129.95%	878.01%	167.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.33%	2.43%	2.54%	0.76%	0.31%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	54.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	24.18

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.84	6.77	4.06
Cash Retained (M)	24.18	24.18	24.18
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.84	-6.77	-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.34	17.40	20.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	340.07	340.07	340.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$8.36	$24.41	$31.69
Upside / Downside	125.37%	557.85%	754.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	54.19	57.71	61.46	65.45	69.71	74.24	76.47
Payout Ratio	55.38%	62.31%	69.23%	76.15%	83.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30.01	35.96	42.55	49.84	57.91	66.82	70.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	33.25	33.57	33.88
Year 2 PV (M)	36.39	37.09	37.79
Year 3 PV (M)	39.43	40.56	41.72
Year 4 PV (M)	42.37	44.00	45.68
Year 5 PV (M)	45.21	47.40	49.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,165.04	1,221.32	1,279.74
Equity Value (M)	1,361.71	1,423.94	1,488.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	340.07	340.07	340.07
Fair Value	$4.00	$4.19	$4.38
Upside / Downside	7.93%	12.86%	17.98%

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Armac Locação, Logística e Serviços S.A. (ARML3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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