DDM Analysis: ARAN.TA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$57.42 - $170.69	$90.81
Multi-Stage	$38.67 - $42.23	$40.42
Blended Fair Value	$65.62
Current Price	$25.41
Upside	158.23%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	1.26	0.63	0.63	0.00	0.90	0.21	1.45	0.51	0.51
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	325.00%	-85.48%	182.79%	0.45%	7.93%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	5.88%	2.85%	2.87%	0.00%	9.98%	1.42%	8.97%	2.30%	1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.14	1.34	0.80
Cash Retained (M)	6.70	6.70	6.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.14	-1.34	-0.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4.56	5.36	5.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4.75	4.75	4.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.96	1.13	1.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.84	0.84	0.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.96	1.13	1.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.80	1.97	2.09
WACC / Discount Rate	8.81%	8.81%	8.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$57.42	$90.81	$170.69
Upside / Downside	125.98%	257.37%	571.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10.70	11.39	12.14	12.92	13.76	14.66	15.10
Payout Ratio	37.39%	47.91%	58.43%	68.95%	79.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.00	5.46	7.09	8.91	10.94	13.19	13.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.81%	8.81%	8.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.97	5.02	5.06
Year 2 PV (M)	5.88	5.99	6.10
Year 3 PV (M)	6.72	6.92	7.11
Year 4 PV (M)	7.51	7.80	8.10
Year 5 PV (M)	8.25	8.65	9.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	150.23	157.49	165.02
Equity Value (M)	183.57	191.86	200.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	4.75	4.75	4.75
Fair Value	$38.67	$40.42	$42.23
Upside / Downside	52.20%	59.08%	66.21%

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Aran Research & Development (1982) Ltd. (ARAN.TA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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