DDM Analysis: ALW.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.62 - $31.68	$25.77
Multi-Stage	$26.32 - $28.84	$27.55
Blended Fair Value	$26.66
Current Price	$12.22
Upside	118.18%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.49%	3.01%	0.25	0.21	0.21	0.16	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.20	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	15.46%	0.41%	34.94%	13.26%	1.66%	0.46%	-5.34%	-27.46%	-13.59%	25.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.98%	1.93%	2.24%	1.52%	1.54%	1.63%	1.98%	1.92%	3.11%	4.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	734.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	173.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	561.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	146.95	91.85	55.11
Cash Retained (M)	561.31	561.31	561.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-146.95	-91.85	-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	414.35	469.46	506.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	334.78	334.78	334.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.24	1.40	1.51
LTM Dividend per Share	0.52	0.52	0.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.24	1.40	1.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.76	1.92	2.03
WACC / Discount Rate	9.61%	9.61%	9.61%
Growth Rate	1.01%	2.01%	3.01%
Fair Value	$20.62	$25.77	$31.68
Upside / Downside	68.72%	110.88%	159.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	734.77	749.53	764.58	779.93	795.60	811.57	835.92
Payout Ratio	23.61%	36.89%	50.16%	63.44%	76.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	173.47	276.47	383.55	494.82	610.40	730.42	773.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.61%	9.61%	9.61%
Growth Rate	1.01%	2.01%	3.01%
Year 1 PV (M)	249.76	252.23	254.71
Year 2 PV (M)	313.01	319.24	325.53
Year 3 PV (M)	364.80	375.74	386.90
Year 4 PV (M)	406.53	422.87	439.70
Year 5 PV (M)	439.46	461.65	484.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,037.80	7,393.15	7,762.70
Equity Value (M)	8,811.37	9,224.89	9,654.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	334.78	334.78	334.78
Fair Value	$26.32	$27.55	$28.84
Upside / Downside	115.38%	125.49%	135.98%

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Alliance Witan Ord (ALW.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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