DDM Analysis: AGO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$52.84 - $75.30	$63.88
Multi-Stage	$103.09 - $113.61	$108.24
Blended Fair Value	$86.06
Current Price	$84.65
Upside	1.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.68%	-1.11%	1.35	1.33	1.27	1.31	1.37	1.47	1.41	1.39	1.37	1.43
YoY Growth	-	-	1.49%	4.69%	-3.03%	-4.35%	-6.76%	4.23%	1.43%	1.45%	-4.17%	-5.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.53%	1.56%	2.53%	2.06%	3.24%	5.70%	3.15%	3.84%	3.69%	5.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	402.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	333.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	80.40	50.25	30.15
Cash Retained (M)	333.00	333.00	333.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-80.40	-50.25	-30.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	252.60	282.75	302.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	50.35	50.35	50.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.02	5.62	6.01
LTM Dividend per Share	1.37	1.37	1.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.02	5.62	6.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.39	6.99	7.39
WACC / Discount Rate	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%
Growth Rate	-3.68%	-2.68%	-1.68%
Fair Value	$52.84	$63.88	$75.30
Upside / Downside	-37.58%	-24.54%	-11.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	402.00	391.24	380.77	370.57	360.65	351.00	361.53
Payout Ratio	17.16%	31.73%	46.30%	60.87%	75.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.00	124.15	176.29	225.55	272.05	315.90	334.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%
Growth Rate	-3.68%	-2.68%	-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)	113.80	114.98	116.17
Year 2 PV (M)	148.14	151.23	154.36
Year 3 PV (M)	173.75	179.21	184.80
Year 4 PV (M)	192.11	200.21	208.57
Year 5 PV (M)	204.49	215.32	226.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,358.17	4,589.14	4,829.81
Equity Value (M)	5,190.45	5,450.11	5,720.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	50.35	50.35	50.35
Fair Value	$103.09	$108.24	$113.61
Upside / Downside	21.78%	27.87%	34.21%

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener