DDM Analysis: AGI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.05 - $27.01	$20.85
Multi-Stage	$12.60 - $13.76	$13.17
Blended Fair Value	$17.01
Current Price	$34.86
Upside	-51.21%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.61%	9.32%	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.57%	0.57%	1.74%	44.35%	53.21%	100.00%	30.00%	11.11%	-49.06%	-26.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.31%	0.58%	0.68%	0.97%	0.72%	0.74%	0.38%	0.27%	0.16%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	535.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	38.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)	497.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	107.09	66.93	40.16
Cash Retained (M)	497.05	497.05	497.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-107.09	-66.93	-40.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	389.96	430.12	456.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	422.15	422.15	422.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.92	1.02	1.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.92	1.02	1.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.01	1.11	1.17
WACC / Discount Rate	12.17%	12.17%	12.17%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$16.05	$20.85	$27.01
Upside / Downside	-53.96%	-40.20%	-22.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	535.44	570.24	607.31	646.78	688.82	733.59	755.60
Payout Ratio	7.17%	23.74%	40.30%	56.87%	73.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	38.39	135.35	244.76	367.81	505.83	660.24	698.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	12.17%	12.17%	12.17%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	119.53	120.67	121.80
Year 2 PV (M)	190.89	194.53	198.20
Year 3 PV (M)	253.34	260.61	268.02
Year 4 PV (M)	307.69	319.52	331.69
Year 5 PV (M)	354.68	371.81	389.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,094.68	4,292.46	4,497.80
Equity Value (M)	5,320.82	5,559.60	5,807.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	422.15	422.15	422.15
Fair Value	$12.60	$13.17	$13.76
Upside / Downside	-63.84%	-62.22%	-60.54%

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Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener