Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hotel Newgrand Co.,Ltd. (9720.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,388.32 - $17,315.64$9,835.16
Multi-Stage$23,481.68 - $25,919.08$24,676.23
Blended Fair Value$17,255.70
Current Price$7,160.00
Upside141.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS325.04%0.00%24.670.000.000.000.000.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)306.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2042.0025.20
Cash Retained (M)306.94306.94306.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.20-42.00-25.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)239.74264.94281.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.181.181.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share203.05224.40238.63
LTM Dividend per Share24.6224.6224.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share203.05224.40238.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend227.67249.02263.25
WACC / Discount Rate2.89%2.89%2.89%
Growth Rate-0.65%0.35%1.35%
Fair Value$6,388.32$9,835.16$17,315.64
Upside / Downside-10.78%37.36%141.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.01337.20338.39339.59340.79341.99352.25
Payout Ratio8.65%24.92%41.19%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0784.03139.39195.13251.26307.79325.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.89%2.89%2.89%
Growth Rate-0.65%0.35%1.35%
Year 1 PV (M)80.8681.6782.48
Year 2 PV (M)129.04131.65134.29
Year 3 PV (M)173.82179.12184.53
Year 4 PV (M)215.36224.16233.23
Year 5 PV (M)253.83266.87280.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,871.0928,250.8929,686.78
Equity Value (M)27,724.0029,134.3630,601.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1.181.181.18
Fair Value$23,481.68$24,676.23$25,919.08
Upside / Downside227.96%244.64%262.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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